ENSO theory

J. David Neelin, David S. Battisti, Anthony C. Hirst, Fei Fei Jin, Yoshinobu Wakata, Toshio Yamagata, Stephen E. Zebiak

研究成果: Contribution to journalArticle査読

748 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Beginning from the hypothesis by Bjerknes [1969] that ocean-atmosphere interaction was essential to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade has not only confirmed this but has supplied detailed theory for mechanisms setting the underlying period and possible mechanisms responsible for the irregularity of ENSO. Essentials of the theory of ocean dynamical adjustment are reviewed from an ENSO perspective. Approaches to simple atmospheric modeling greatly aided development of theory for ENSO atmospheric feedbacks but are critically reviewed for current stumbling blocks for applications beyond ENSO. ENSO theory has benefitted from an unusually complete hierarchy of coupled models of various levels of complexity. Most of the progress during the ENSO decade came from models of intermediate complexity, which are sufficiently detailed to compare to observations and to use in prediction but are less complex than coupled general circulation models. ENSO theory in simple models lagged behind ENSO simulation in intermediate models but has provided a useful role in uniting seemingly diverse viewpoints. The process of boiling ENSO theory down to a single consensus model of all aspects of the phenomenon is still a rapidly progressing area, and theoretical limits to ENSO predictability are still in debate, but a thorough foundation for the discussion has been established in the TOGA decade.

本文言語英語
ページ(範囲)14261-14290
ページ数30
ジャーナルJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
103
C7
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 6 29 1998

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 地球化学および岩石学
  • 地球物理学
  • 地球惑星科学(その他)
  • 宇宙惑星科学
  • 大気科学
  • 天文学と天体物理学
  • 海洋学

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