Estimation for energy demand fluctuation in commercial and business area by Monte Carlo simulation

This paper describes development of the energy demand estimation method for non-residential buildings and the demand analysis in Japanese business area by using this method. We developed a method and a program to estimate demand of electricity and heat (heating, cooling and hot water) of non-residential buildings for one year. This program makes fluctuation in demand by 5-minutes intervals to reproduce the actual fluctuation depending on the type of buildings, total floor area, outdoor air temperature and so on. We can consider ideal based on the demand data.