Estimation of Travel Time Variability Using Bus Probe Data

Mansur As, Tsunenori Mine, Hiroyuki Nakamura

研究成果: 書籍/レポート タイプへの寄稿会議への寄与

3 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Prediction of bus travel times is of crucial importance for passengers in letting them know their departure time from an origin and arrival time at a destination and allowing them to make decisions (e.g., postpone departure time at certain hours) and to reduce their waiting time at bus stops. To predict bus travel times, it is important to know whether the target routes are stable or not. In this paper, we propose a time series approach to predict the travel time over an interval between two adjacent bus stops. We build Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models to predict the travel time over the interval. To make accurate predictions, we divide a day into 8 time-periods in calculating travel time over the interval and classify unstable intervals into three types: weak, medium and strong unstable. We use bus probe data collected from November 21st to December 20th 2013 and provided by Nishitetsu Bus Company, Fukuoka, Japan. Experimental results show that our models can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of travel times over intervals by focusing on the three unstable classes and calculating travel times for each interval at each of 8 time-periods in a day.

本文言語英語
ホスト出版物のタイトル6th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Logistics and Transport, ICALT 2017 - Proceedings
出版社Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ページ199-204
ページ数6
ISBN(電子版)9781538616239
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 11月 26 2018
イベント6th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Logistics and Transport, ICALT 2017 - Bali, インドネシア
継続期間: 7月 24 20177月 27 2017

出版物シリーズ

名前6th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Logistics and Transport, ICALT 2017 - Proceedings

その他

その他6th IEEE International Conference on Advanced Logistics and Transport, ICALT 2017
国/地域インドネシア
CityBali
Period7/24/177/27/17

!!!All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 経営科学およびオペレーションズ リサーチ
  • 自動車工学
  • 制御と最適化
  • 輸送

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