TY - JOUR
T1 - Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability
AU - Ma, Jian
AU - Zhou, Lei
AU - Foltz, Gregory R.
AU - Qu, Xia
AU - Ying, Jun
AU - Tokinaga, Hiroki
AU - Mechoso, Carlos R.
AU - Li, Jinbao
AU - Gu, Xingyu
N1 - Funding Information:
We acknowledge various modeling groups for producing and providing their output, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison for collecting and archiving the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 multi-model data, the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modeling for organizing the analysis activity, and the Office of Science, the U.S. Department of Energy for supporting these data sets in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Y. Du, X. Zheng, and P. Huang are gratefully appreciated for downloading and processing the CMIP6 data. We thank all excellent scientists for their previous studies as materials necessary to compose this comprehensive article. Shanghai Ocean Conference of the Shanghai Jiao Tong University/School of Oceanography hosted a useful discussion for elaborating the paper. Three anonymous reviewers are gratefully appreciated for their useful comments and suggestions. J.M. was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (41675070) and Shanghai Expert Development Fund (2017033). L.Z. was funded by the NSFC (41621064, 41530961, 41690121, and 41690120) and the IPOVAR Project (GASI-IPOVAI-01-02 and GASI-IPOVAI-02). G.R.F was supported by base funds to NOAA/AOML's Physical Oceanography Division. X.Q. received support from the NSFC (41831175). J.Y. was funded by the NSFC (41706024). H.T. was supported by the KAKENHI Grants (18H01281, 18H03726, and 19H05704) of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. J.L. was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0605601). C.R.M. was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS-1547912).
Funding Information:
We acknowledge various modeling groups for producing and providing their output, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison for collecting and archiving the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 multi-model data, the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling for organizing the analysis activity, and the Office of Science, the U.S. Department of Energy for supporting these data sets in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Y. Du, X. Zheng, and P. Huang are gratefully appreciated for downloading and processing the CMIP6 data. We thank all excellent scientists for their previous studies as materials necessary to compose this comprehensive article. Shanghai Ocean Conference of the Shanghai Jiao Tong University/School of Oceanography hosted a useful discussion for elaborating the paper. Three anonymous reviewers are gratefully appreciated for their useful comments and suggestions. J.M. was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (41675070) and Shanghai Expert Development Fund (2017033). L.Z. was funded by the NSFC (41621064, 41530961, 41690121, and 41690120) and the IPOVAR Project (GASI-IPOVAI-01-02 and GASI-IPOVAI-02). G.R.F was supported by base funds to NOAA/AOML’s Physical Oceanography Division. X.Q. received support from the NSFC (41831175). J.Y. was funded by the NSFC (41706024). H.T. was supported by the KAKENHI Grants (18H01281, 18H03726, and 19H05704) of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. J.L. was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0605601). C.R.M. was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS-1547912).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 New York Academy of Sciences.
PY - 2020/7
Y1 - 2020/7
N2 - Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land–sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.
AB - Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land–sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.
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U2 - 10.1111/nyas.14335
DO - 10.1111/nyas.14335
M3 - Review article
C2 - 32223020
AN - SCOPUS:85088676184
VL - 1472
SP - 21
EP - 48
JO - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
JF - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
SN - 0077-8923
IS - 1
ER -
