Hydrological cycle changes under global warming and their effects on multiscale climate variability

Jian Ma, Lei Zhou, Gregory R. Foltz, Xia Qu, Jun Ying, Hiroki Tokinaga, Carlos R. Mechoso, Jinbao Li, Xingyu Gu

研究成果: Contribution to journalReview article査読

3 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Despite a globally uniform increase in the concentrations of emitted greenhouse gases, radiatively forced surface warming can have significant spatial variations. These define warming patterns that depend on preexisting climate states and through atmospheric and oceanic dynamics can drive changes of the hydrological cycle with global-scale feedbacks. Our study reviews research progress on the hydrological cycle changes and their effects on multiscale climate variability. Overall, interannual variability is expected to become stronger in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and weaker in the Atlantic. Global monsoon rainfall is projected to increase and the wet season to lengthen despite a slowdown of atmospheric circulation. Strong variations among monsoon regions are likely to emerge, depending on surface conditions such as orography and land–sea contrast. Interdecadal climate variability is expected to modulate the globally averaged surface temperature change with pronounced anomalies in the polar and equatorial regions, leading to prolonged periods of enhanced or reduced warming. It is emphasized that advanced global observations, regional simulations, and process-level investigations are essential for improvements in understanding, predicting, and projecting the modes of climate variability, monsoon sensitivity, and energetic fluctuations in a warming climate.

本文言語英語
ページ(範囲)21-48
ページ数28
ジャーナルAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences
1472
1
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 7 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 神経科学(全般)
  • 生化学、遺伝学、分子生物学(全般)
  • 科学史および科学哲学

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