Background: Epidemiological data regarding diabetic kidney disease are accumulated insufficiently in Japan. We prospectively investigated the incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and risk factors for progression of renal dysfunction in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods: 4904 participants with type 2 diabetes (mean age 65 years, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 75 mL/min/1.73 m2, proportion of eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 21%) were investigated for the progression to ESRD requiring dialysis in multicenter outpatients registry for 5 years. Risk factors for progression of renal dysfunction (≥ 30% decline in eGFR from the baseline and annual eGFR decline rates) were evaluated. Results: The incidence rates of ESRD and all-cause mortality were 4.1/1000 person-years and 12.3/1000 person-years, respectively, and increased according to stages of chronic kidney disease (eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2, incidence of ESRD 176.6/1000 person-years, all-cause mortality 57.4/1000 person-years). Incidence of ≥ 30% decline in eGFR from the baseline was 16.4% at 5 years, and the mean annual decline rate was −1.84 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. The progression of renal dysfunction was significantly associated with older age, poor glycemic control, blood pressure, albuminuria, eGFR, previous cardiovascular disease, lifestyle factors (body mass index, reduced intake of dietary fiber, increased intake of sodium, no regular exercise), and depressive symptoms. Conclusions: This prospective study has emphasized the importance of multifactorial interventions on risk factors to suppress the high incidence of ESRD in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes.
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