Investigating the efficiency of dynamic vaccination by consolidating detecting errors and vaccine efficacy

Yuichi Tatsukawa, Md Rajib Arefin, Shinobu Utsumi, Jun Tanimoto

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿学術誌査読

抄録

Vaccination, if available, is the best preventive measure against infectious diseases. It is, however, needed to prudently design vaccination strategies to successfully mitigate the disease spreading, especially in a time when vaccine scarcity is inevitable. Here we investigate a vaccination strategy on a scale-free network where susceptible individuals, who have social connections with infected people, are being detected and given vaccination before having any physical contact with the infected one. Nevertheless, detecting susceptible (also infected ones) may not be perfect due to the lack of information. Also, vaccines do not confer perfect immunity in reality. We incorporate these pragmatic hindrances in our analysis. We find that if vaccines are highly efficacious, and the detecting error is low, then it is possible to confine the disease spreading—by administering a less amount of vaccination—within a short period. In a situation where tracing susceptible seems difficult, then expanding the range for vaccination targets can be socially advantageous only if vaccines are effective enough. Our analysis further reveals that a more frequent screening for vaccination can reduce the effect of detecting errors. In the end, we present a link percolation-based analytic method to approximate the results of our simulation.

本文言語英語
論文番号8111
ジャーナルScientific reports
12
1
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 12月 2022

!!!All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 一般

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