TY - JOUR
T1 - Measuring long-term sustainability with shared socioeconomic pathways using an inclusive wealth framework
AU - Kurniawan, Robi
AU - Managi, Shunsuke
N1 - Funding Information:
This paper was supported by Grant‐in‐Aid for Specially Promoted Research (26000001) by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the institutions and funding agencies.
Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment
PY - 2018/11/1
Y1 - 2018/11/1
N2 - To understand the trajectory of sustainability, it is important to measure historical and future projections of productive capital that contribute to wellbeing. This study considers a productive base that includes the human, natural and produced capital of 140 countries. We then develop projections for 2014–2100 using the newly developed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) that strive to explain the implications of key socioeconomic variables on long-term global sustainability. Those SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the highest growth in inclusive wealth. Poverty alleviation, demographic changes and human capital investments are effective instruments to attain greater wealth as shown in East and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the least climate change challenges and substantially reduced reliance on natural resources, is more conducive to increasing wellbeing than the fragmented pathways that result in inequality.
AB - To understand the trajectory of sustainability, it is important to measure historical and future projections of productive capital that contribute to wellbeing. This study considers a productive base that includes the human, natural and produced capital of 140 countries. We then develop projections for 2014–2100 using the newly developed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) that strive to explain the implications of key socioeconomic variables on long-term global sustainability. Those SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the highest growth in inclusive wealth. Poverty alleviation, demographic changes and human capital investments are effective instruments to attain greater wealth as shown in East and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the least climate change challenges and substantially reduced reliance on natural resources, is more conducive to increasing wellbeing than the fragmented pathways that result in inequality.
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U2 - 10.1002/sd.1722
DO - 10.1002/sd.1722
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85048791899
VL - 26
SP - 596
EP - 605
JO - Sustainable Development
JF - Sustainable Development
SN - 0968-0802
IS - 6
ER -