Prediction of Bus Delay over Intervals on Various Kinds of Routes Using Bus Probe Data

Tsubasa Yamaguchi, Mansur As, Tsunenori Mine

研究成果: 著書/レポートタイプへの貢献会議での発言

抄録

Prediction of bus travel time and/or delay time is a useful tool for passengers who want to plan their journey, e.g., when they should leave from the origin bus stop, what they will do after arriving at the destination bus stop, and so on. Many studies have tackled this task using probe data and/or the real time data provided by automatic vehicle location (AVL) systems. Most of them only targeted a small number of routes, short time periods, e.g. less than one week, and used few machine learning models to evaluate their methods. However, different routes generally show different characteristics. In fact, there are big differences between urban routes and rural routes. Furthermore, the performance of machine learning models also varies according to the data dealt with by the models. In this paper, we propose prediction models for bus delay over all intervals between pairs of adjacent bus stops. To build the models, we use one month of bus probe data, which includes more than 80 routes, and apply several machine learning models: linear regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT). Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the GBDT-based prediction model and the effects of considering travel time over prior intervals.

元の言語英語
ホスト出版物のタイトルProceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018
編集者Josef Spillner, Alan Sill
出版者Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ページ97-106
ページ数10
ISBN(電子版)9781538655023
DOI
出版物ステータス出版済み - 1 9 2019
イベント5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018 - Zurich, スイス
継続期間: 12 17 201812 20 2018

出版物シリーズ

名前Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018

会議

会議5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018
スイス
Zurich
期間12/17/1812/20/18

Fingerprint

Learning systems
Travel time
Decision trees
travel
learning
regression
linear model
neural network
Bus
Prediction
Linear regression
time
Time delay
Neural networks
performance
Learning model
Machine learning
Gradient
Decision tree
Boosting

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Computer Science Applications
  • Information Systems
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Decision Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Information Systems and Management
  • Communication

これを引用

Yamaguchi, T., As, M., & Mine, T. (2019). Prediction of Bus Delay over Intervals on Various Kinds of Routes Using Bus Probe Data. : J. Spillner, & A. Sill (版), Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018 (pp. 97-106). [8606640] (Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/BDCAT.2018.00020

Prediction of Bus Delay over Intervals on Various Kinds of Routes Using Bus Probe Data. / Yamaguchi, Tsubasa; As, Mansur; Mine, Tsunenori.

Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018. 版 / Josef Spillner; Alan Sill. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2019. p. 97-106 8606640 (Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018).

研究成果: 著書/レポートタイプへの貢献会議での発言

Yamaguchi, T, As, M & Mine, T 2019, Prediction of Bus Delay over Intervals on Various Kinds of Routes Using Bus Probe Data. : J Spillner & A Sill (版), Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018., 8606640, Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 97-106, 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018, Zurich, スイス, 12/17/18. https://doi.org/10.1109/BDCAT.2018.00020
Yamaguchi T, As M, Mine T. Prediction of Bus Delay over Intervals on Various Kinds of Routes Using Bus Probe Data. : Spillner J, Sill A, 編集者, Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2019. p. 97-106. 8606640. (Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018). https://doi.org/10.1109/BDCAT.2018.00020
Yamaguchi, Tsubasa ; As, Mansur ; Mine, Tsunenori. / Prediction of Bus Delay over Intervals on Various Kinds of Routes Using Bus Probe Data. Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018. 編集者 / Josef Spillner ; Alan Sill. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2019. pp. 97-106 (Proceedings - 5th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Big Data Computing, Applications and Technologies, BDCAT 2018).
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