Prevention of avian influenza epidemic: What policy should we choose?

Shingo Iwami, Yasuhiro Takeuchi, Andrei Korobeinikov, Xianning Liu

研究成果: Contribution to journalArticle査読

30 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Human-to-human transmission of the avian influenza has been extremely rarely reported, and is considered as limited, inefficient and unsustained. However, experts warn an occurrence of "mutant avian influenza", which can easily spread among humans, because the avian influenza is already endemic, in particular in Asian poultry, and it is evolving in domestic and wild birds, pigs and humans. Outbreak of such mutant avian influenza in the human world may have devastating consequences, which are comparable with these for the 1918 "Spanish influenza". In this paper we develop a mathematical model for the spread of the mutant avian influenza, and explore the effectivity of the prevention policies, namely the elimination policy which increases the effective additional death rate of the infected birds and the quarantine policy which reduces the number of infective contacts.

本文言語英語
ページ(範囲)732-741
ページ数10
ジャーナルJournal of Theoretical Biology
252
4
DOI
出版ステータス出版済み - 6 21 2008
外部発表はい

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 統計学および確率
  • モデリングとシミュレーション
  • 生化学、遺伝学、分子生物学(全般)
  • 免疫学および微生物学(全般)
  • 農業および生物科学(全般)
  • 応用数学

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