Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands

Luis Fernando Chaves, Masahiro Hashizume, Akiko Satake, Noboru Minakawa

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿記事

25 引用 (Scopus)

抄録

Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission.

元の言語英語
ページ(範囲)14-25
ページ数12
ジャーナルParasitology
139
発行部数1
DOI
出版物ステータス出版済み - 1 1 2012

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Kenya
malaria
Malaria
time series analysis
highlands
Air Conditioning
Global Warming
Lake Victoria
Victoria
Climate Change
Lakes
global warming
climate change
basins
incidence
Incidence

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Parasitology
  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • Infectious Diseases

これを引用

Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands. / Chaves, Luis Fernando; Hashizume, Masahiro; Satake, Akiko; Minakawa, Noboru.

:: Parasitology, 巻 139, 番号 1, 01.01.2012, p. 14-25.

研究成果: ジャーナルへの寄稿記事

Chaves, Luis Fernando ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Satake, Akiko ; Minakawa, Noboru. / Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands. :: Parasitology. 2012 ; 巻 139, 番号 1. pp. 14-25.
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