Storm-time atmospheric density modeling using neural networks and its application in orbit propagation

研究成果: Contribution to journalArticle査読

6 被引用数 (Scopus)


Upper atmospheric densities during geomagnetic storms are usually poorly estimated due to a lack of clear understanding of coupling mechanisms between the thermosphere and magnetosphere. Consequently, the orbit determination and propagation for low-Earth-orbit objects during geomagnetic storms have large uncertainties. Artificial neural networks are often used to identify nonlinear systems in the absence of rigorous theory. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the storm-time atmospheric density using neural networks. Considering the debate over the representative of geomagnetic storm effect, i.e. the geomagnetic indices ap and Dst, three neural network models (NNM) are developed with ap, Dst and a combination of ap and Dst respectively. The density data used for training the NNMs are derived from the measurements of the satellites CHAMP and GRACE. The NNMs are evaluated by looking at: (a) the mean residuals and the standard deviations with respect to the density data that are not used in training process, and (b) the accuracy of reconstructing the orbits of selected objects during storms employing each model. This empirical modeling technique and the comparisons with the models NRLMSIS-00 and Jacchia-Bowman 2008 reveal (1) the capability of neural networks to model the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities, and density variations; and (2) the merits and demerits of ap and Dst when it comes to characterizing density variations during storms.

ジャーナルAdvances in Space Research
出版ステータス出版済み - 2 1 2014

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • 航空宇宙工学
  • 天文学と天体物理学
  • 地球物理学
  • 大気科学
  • 宇宙惑星科学
  • 地球惑星科学(全般)


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