Using breakup models and propagators to devise debris search strategies in GEO

Current search strategies for telescopes observing the GEO environment are designed around the known orbital distributions of catalogued objects. However, the majority of catalogued objects are believed to be intact spacecraft and rocket bodies - not the debris particles the searches are intended to locate. If there have been breakups in GEO, the explosions may have put the debris into orbits that are significantly different from those in the catalogue. Consequently, observation plans optimized for the catalogue population may not be optimized for any unseen debris populations. We will present some hypothetical cases, including a near-synchronous US Titan IIIC Transtage explosion, to demonstrate this effect and make some observations on how to implement future search strategies.